Napa will be "dead" in 30 years

[Daniel Posner]

http://www.decanter.com/news/wine-ne...30-years-study

I wonder what the winemakers are saying about this?

[Bill Klapp]

Says 50% of the land will be unsuitable. That could mean only that your six-bottle allocation of Harlan Estate will be cut to 3, and the price raised to $1,500 a bottle (or the inflation-adjusted equivalent). The Screagle allocation goes to a single bottle, priced at $2,500. It is a shame that so few, if any, contemporary Napa Cabs will be wine in 2040. Can you imagine what a bottle of the 2001 Harlan would be worth then? (I started to say 1997 Harlan, but there is that nagging and recurrent theme about that it is not wine NOW!)

[William Segui]

I'll spare my true feelings, but I'll take the over on 30 years, thank you. Fear mongering, is a start - but we've seen cooler than 'average' temps since 2005 around here, so I'm not sure where this guy is coming from. And if it does warm up, my in-laws vineyard in Oak Knoll is going to be priceless, so I say bring it on.

[Ken_Birman]

That's a big deal, but on the other hand you have that MIT climatology professor who says that the effect is even more complex. I think I summarized here? NPR had an article back in winter, and NY Times. Basically, she says that global warming increases humidity, causing more snow to fall on the far side of the Himalayas in Siberia. Ground covered by snow increases, so temperatures in that small area decrease. But this means we get colder waves in North America and Europe during the February time period because that cold air, during that particular period, can slide over the north pole, down onto North America, and then blow to Europe.

So not only will the ideal vineyard of the future need to withstand hot days in the summer (those are not affected by this MIT model), but also very cold winter periods. Here in the Fingerlakes we had -15 degree mornings many times in January/February, which is way colder than any winter in a decade, and spring came late and was cool.

Not disagreeing that California may cook. Just saying it may also freeze and get dumped on in winter!

[Daniel Posner]

William

Your wife is beautiful and her family owns a vineyard?

Give her my phone #!

[Bill Klapp]

Down, Dan. You are a married man! Let's talk about something more important...me. I just realized that if I do not eat too much Flannery's beef and work out regularly, I may outlive Napa! A horrifying thought to many, I am sure, but still possible, and perhaps even likely. If the MIT dude doesn't screw it up for me. The first goal, of course, is outlasting Bordeaux. I need only survive another 3-5 years to do that (less time if the Chinese economy collapses in the meantime)!

[Bob Kaminski]

Climate change? The NWS can't even get the 24 hour forecast correct

So, the Earth is how many billions of years old and how long have humans bene around? How long have humans been versed in science? How much climate data do they have and how much do they understand climate change based on the science we have and the data we have. Is the current trend a cycle within other larger cycles? Have humans perturbed the natural cycle? If so, how much and to what degree?

When science is tied to money and politics, science gets hijacked. The truth is all we have is theory and the theory spin is based on who is providing you the funding. Total BS system.

The article stated the model was correlated. So, how did it correlate? No mention of that.

End of rant.

[Jack Bulkin]

I'm afraid that climate change in Napa in 30 years is the least of our problems. With our Federal Government. States and municipalities running out of money once America's credit card goes dry and government pensions, health care, sanitation and police and jail costs becoming unfundable, I'm afraid that I will need those three bottles of 2001 Harlan to make it through one day long before 30 years from now.

[Bob Kaminski]

I'm afraid that climate change in Napa in 30 years is the least of our problems. With our Federal Government. States and municipalities running out of money once America's credit card goes dry and government pensions, health care, sanitation and police and jail costs becoming unfundable, I'm afraid that I will need those three bottles of 2001 Harlan to make it through one day long before 30 years from now.

That's a fact Jack Too bad I don't have any Harlan. I will just have to drown in Margaux and Latour

[Ken_Birman]

Bob, I think the "fact" of climate change (namely, climate is changing rapidly) is well established now. Obviously people do debate the causes and what to do about the trend, if anything, but this study doesn't get into that. They just say that the trend clearly will make it too hot and dry in Napa in the summer for Cabernet and Chardonnay. Grenache and Syrah would be options.

So the cause could be anything: sunspots, God hugging us a little closer, hot air from DC. Asking how the measured trend impacts us is kind of a separate line of thought.... And they didn't ask what happens to Bordeaux, so Margaux may be growing syrah too, 30 years out...

[Jack Bulkin]

That's a fact Jack Too bad I don't have any Harlan. I will just have to drown in Margaux and Latour

Bob, you had better drink that over priced french swill before the electric power goes out.

[Ken_Birman]

French power won't go out. Nukes.

[Jack Bulkin]

Bob lives here though Ken, not in France. I get my power from Nukes here too. That's what worries me.

[Bob Kaminski]

Bob, you had better drink that over priced french swill before the electric power goes out.

Ha I have candles and the French swill was not over priced when I bought it.

[Bob Kaminski]

Bob, I think the "fact" of climate change (namely, climate is changing rapidly) is well established now. Obviously people do debate the causes and what to do about the trend, if anything, but this study doesn't get into that. They just say that the trend clearly will make it too hot and dry in Napa in the summer for Cabernet and Chardonnay. Grenache and Syrah would be options.

So the cause could be anything: sunspots, God hugging us a little closer, hot air from DC. Asking how the measured trend impacts us is kind of a separate line of thought.... And they didn't ask what happens to Bordeaux, so Margaux may be growing syrah too, 30 years out...

Ken,
I do not dispute climate change (yeah we had an ice age not long ago -in geologic time terms). I just do not have much , shall I say faith, in the human ability to predict what nature will do.

[Ken_Birman]

Bob, as a matter of fact, neither do I!

And now to the pressing question: what wine, if any, to open with dinner tonight. Really hot; I should have bought some Rose when I was in town today.

In Europe we were drinking the Rose from Chateau la Canorgue -- highly recommend it if you can find it. Cheap, clean, dry... perfect for weather like this. A wine for future Napa winters, basically!